Retirement Withdrawal Calculator: Inflation-Adjusted Draws
The first-year withdrawal rate drives almost everything. Below, $1 million earns 5% a year while withdrawals grow 2.5% a year with inflation, with no other income. Social Security softens the draw: it rises with each cost-of-living adjustment, 3.6% for 2027 (SSA 2027 fact sheet).
| First-year withdrawal rate | Money lasts |
|---|---|
| 3% | 45+ years |
| 4% | about 37.5 years |
| 5% | about 27 years |
| 6% | about 21 years |
| 7% | about 17 years |
Real markets don't move in straight lines, so treat these as midpoints, not promises.
How Long Will $1 Million Last in Retirement? A Table by Spending
At a 5% return and 2.5% inflation, $1 million lasts about 37 years at $40,000 a year of withdrawals and about 11 years at $100,000. Every dollar of Social Security or pension you have reduces the withdrawal, so subtract it first.
| Yearly withdrawal from $1 million | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $40,000 | about 37.5 years |
| $50,000 | about 27 years |
| $60,000 | about 21 years |
| $80,000 | about 14.7 years |
| $100,000 | about 11.3 years |
A 65-year-old woman has about a 35% chance of reaching 90 (SSA life table), so a plan that ends at 85 isn't safe.
Our take: plan for bad timing, not average returns
A market drop in the first few years of retirement does more damage than the same drop later. Keep two to three years of spending in cash and bonds, and plan to at least 95. Compare a fixed safe rate on the 4% rule calculator, check your horizon on the life expectancy calculator, and see how a later Social Security start shrinks withdrawals on the break-even calculator.